South African Rhino Horn Trafficking Middlemen
Decision-Making Diagram

Node: TRDRSMEM Value_Labels: dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied
                                                     00.333  00.333

Node: TRDRS Value_Labels: dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied
Parents: TRDRSMEM INACTN
        dissatisfied             no_input_action  00.1  00.8
        dissatisfied          bid_for_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1
        dissatisfied        sell_few_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
        dissatisfied    sell_several_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
        dissatisfied       sell_many_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
        dissatisfied           arrest__middleman  00.2  00.2
        dissatisfied    arrest_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1
        dissatisfied     shoot_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1
          ambivalent             no_input_action  00.1  00.8
          ambivalent          bid_for_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1
          ambivalent        sell_few_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
          ambivalent    sell_several_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
          ambivalent       sell_many_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
          ambivalent           arrest__middleman  00.7  00.2
          ambivalent    arrest_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1
          ambivalent     shoot_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1
           satisfied             no_input_action  00.1  00.8
           satisfied          bid_for_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1
           satisfied        sell_few_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
           satisfied    sell_several_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
           satisfied       sell_many_rhino_horns  00.1  00.1
           satisfied           arrest__middleman  00.7  00.2
           satisfied    arrest_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1
           satisfied     shoot_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1

Node: TRDRSG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parent: TRDRS
                                       dissatisfied  00.900  00.050
                                         ambivalent  00.200  00.700
                                          satisfied  00.100  00.300

Node: MPG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parent: INACTN
                                    no_input_action  00.8  00.1
                                 bid_for_rhino_horn  00.1  00.1
                               sell_few_rhino_horns  00.8  00.1
                           sell_several_rhino_horns  00.8  00.1
                              sell_many_rhino_horns  00.8  00.1
                                  arrest__middleman  00.8  00.1
                           arrest_poaching_suspects  00.7  00.1
                            shoot_poaching_suspects  00.8  00.1

Node: IIWP Value_Labels: will_be_arrested_for_poaching no_interaction
Parents: INACTR INACTN
                           no_group     no_input_action  00.100
                  no_group           bid_for_rhino_horn  00.100
                  no_group         sell_few_rhino_horns  00.100
                  no_group     sell_several_rhino_horns  00.100
                  no_group        sell_many_rhino_horns  00.100
                  no_group            arrest__middleman  00.100
                  no_group     arrest_poaching_suspects  00.100
                   no_group     shoot_poaching_suspects  00.100
                anti-poach              no_input_action  00.100
                anti-poach           bid_for_rhino_horn  00.100
                anti-poach         sell_few_rhino_horns  00.100
                anti-poach     sell_several_rhino_horns  00.100
                anti-poach        sell_many_rhino_horns  00.100
             anti-poach               arrest__middleman  00.900
                anti-poach     arrest_poaching_suspects  00.700
                 anti-poach     shoot_poaching_suspects  00.700
                                  trdrs no_input_action  00.100
                     trdrs           bid_for_rhino_horn  00.400
                     trdrs         sell_few_rhino_horns  00.100
                     trdrs     sell_several_rhino_horns  00.100
                     trdrs        sell_many_rhino_horns  00.100
                     trdrs            arrest__middleman  00.100
                     trdrs     arrest_poaching_suspects  00.100
                     trdrs      shoot_poaching_suspects  00.100
                poachers                no_input_action  00.100
                poachers             bid_for_rhino_horn  00.100
                poachers           sell_few_rhino_horns  00.500
                poachers       sell_several_rhino_horns  00.500
                poachers          sell_many_rhino_horns  00.500
                poachers              arrest__middleman  00.100
                poachers       arrest_poaching_suspects  00.100
                poachers        shoot_poaching_suspects  00.100

Node: APG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parent: IIWP
                      will_be_arrested_for_poaching  00.8  00.1
                                     no_interaction  00.1  00.1

Node: CTARGET Value_Labels: one,traders one,poachers
Parent: ACTN
                                             no_action  00.333 
                                 sponsor_poaching_raid  00.01
                                       sell_rhino_horn  00.933

Node: TRP Value_Labels: less parity more
Parent: CTARGET
                                     one,trdrs       00.1  00.1
                                       one,poachers  00.8  00.1

Node: SIIWP Value_Labels: will_be_arrested_for_trafficking no_interaction
Parents: TRP ACTN
                   less                   no_action  00.100
                   less       sponsor_poaching_raid  00.100
                   less             sell_rhino_horn  00.100
                   parity                 no_action  00.100
                   parity     sponsor_poaching_raid  00.100
                   parity           sell_rhino_horn  00.100
                   more                   no_action  00.100
                   more       sponsor_poaching_raid  00.100
                   more             sell_rhino_horn  00.100

Node: STRDRS Value_Labels: dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied
Parents: TRDRS ACTN
                             dissatisfied no_action  00.900  00.050
                 dissatisfied sponsor_poaching_raid  00.800  00.100
                       dissatisfied sell_rhino_horn  00.500  00.400
                               ambivalent no_action  00.600  00.300
                   ambivalent sponsor_poaching_raid  00.800  00.100
                         ambivalent sell_rhino_horn  00.300  00.600
                                satisfied no_action  00.400  00.300
                    satisfied sponsor_poaching_raid  00.800  00.100
                          satisfied sell_rhino_horn  00.300  00.500

Node: STRDRSG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parents: TRDRSG STRDRS
                            unattained dissatisfied  00.900  00.050
                              unattained ambivalent  00.800  00.100
                               unattained satisfied  00.700  00.200
                              middling dissatisfied  00.600  00.300
                                middling ambivalent  00.500  00.400
                                 middling satisfied  00.400  00.400
                              attained dissatisfied  00.400  00.400
                                attained ambivalent  00.300  00.400
                                 attained satisfied  00.200  00.300

Node: SMPG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parents: MPG ACTN
                               unattained no_action  00.8  00.1
                unattained    sponsor_poaching_raid  00.1  00.1
                         unattained sell_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1
                                 middling no_action  00.8  00.1
                  middling    sponsor_poaching_raid  00.1  00.1
                           middling sell_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1
                                 attained no_action  00.8  00.1
                  attained    sponsor_poaching_raid  00.1  00.1
                           attained sell_rhino_horn  00.8  00.1

Node: SAPG Value_Labels: unattained middling attained
Parents: APG SIIWP
           unattained will_be_arrested_for_trafficking  00.100  00.100
                          unattained    no_interaction  00.100  00.100
             middling will_be_arrested_for_trafficking  00.100  00.100
                            middling    no_interaction  00.100  00.100
             attained will_be_arrested_for_trafficking  00.100  00.100
                            attained    no_interaction  00.100  00.100

Node: APRICE Parameters: beta_0 (0.0 1.0) beta_1 (0.05 2.0)
Parents: SAPG INAPRICE
                               unattained  price  0.000  1.10
                               middling    price  0.000  1.10
                                 attained  price  0.000  1.10

Node: BPRICE Parameters: beta_0 (0.0 1.0) beta_1 (0.05 2.0)
Parents: SAPG INBPRICE
                               unattained  price  0.000  0.90
                               middling    price  0.000  0.90
                                 attained  price  0.000  0.90

Node: OGA Value_Labels: utility
Parents: STRDRSG SMPG SAPG
                   unattained unattained unattained  00.100
                     unattained unattained middling  00.300
                     unattained unattained attained  00.700
                     unattained middling unattained  00.100
                       unattained middling middling  00.400
                       unattained middling attained  00.700
                     unattained attained unattained  00.200
                       unattained attained middling  00.400
                       unattained attained attained  00.700
                     middling unattained unattained  00.300
                       middling unattained middling  00.700
                       middling unattained attained  00.800
                       middling middling unattained  00.300
                         middling middling middling  00.700
                         middling middling attained  00.800
                       middling attained unattained  00.500
                         middling attained middling  00.700
                         middling attained attained  00.800
                     attained unattained unattained  00.700
                       attained unattained middling  00.800
                       attained unattained attained  00.800
                       attained middling unattained  00.700
                         attained middling middling  00.800
                         attained middling attained  00.800
                       attained attained unattained  00.700
                         attained attained middling  00.800
                         attained attained attained  00.900
