South African Anti-Poaching Units
Decision-Making Diagram

comment (------------------------Situation Sub-ID---------------------)

node Time                                    TIME         Determ_Root
values(1 time)

node Input_Action                            INACTN       Determ_Root
values(7
no_input_action
sell_a_few_rhino_horns
sell_several_rhino_horns
sell_many_rhino_horns
shoot_anti-poaching_officer
increase_anti-poach_funding
ecosystem_state)
 
node Input_Actor                             INACTR       Determ_Root
values(4 no_group1 poachers government rhinoeco)

node Input_Subject                           INS          Determ_Root
values(3 no_group1 anti-poach rhinoeco)

node Economic_Re-sources_Memory              ECONMEM      Discrete
values(3 negligible inadequate adequate)

node Government__Memory                       GVMTMEM      Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)

node Poaching__Action                         PCHACT       Determ_Discrete
values(3 yes possible no)
parents(2 INS INACTN)

node Rhino_Abundance                        RAbund      Determ_Root
values(1 density)

node Rhino_Prevalence                       RP           Logit
values(3 none few many)
parents(1 RAbund)
parameters(3 a1 a2 rhino)

node Poaching_Rate                          PR         Discrete
values(3 freq infreq rare)
parents(1 PCHACT)

node Economic_Re-sources_Change               ECONCHG      Determ_Discrete
values(5 large_decrease small_decrease no_change small_increase
large_increase)
parents(2 INS INACTN)

node Economic_Resources                      ECON         Discrete
values(3 negligible inadequate adequate)
parents(2 ECONMEM ECONCHG)

node Government_Change                        GVMTCHG      Determ_Discrete
values(3 decreased no_change increased)
parents(1 INACTN)

node Government                               GVMT         Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 GVMTMEM GVMTCHG)

node Protect_Eco-system_Goal                   PEG         Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 RP PR)

node Expand_Budget__Goal                       EBG         Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 ECON GVMT)

comment (---------------------Scenario Sub-ID--------------------------)

node Action                                   ACTN        Determ_Decision
values(6
no_action
seize_rhino_horn
increase_anti-poaching_enforcement
arrest_poaching_suspects
shoot_poaching_suspects
arrest_middleman)
 
node Targets                                  TARGETS    Determ_Decision
values(3 one,poachers one,middle one,rhinoeco)

node Chosen__Target                            CTARGET     Discrete
values(3 one,poachers one,middle one,rhinoeco)
parents(1 ACTN)

node S._Poaching__Rate                   SPR          Discrete
values(3 freq infreq rare)
parents(2 PR ACTN)

node S._Rhino__Prevalence                 SRP         Discrete
values(3 none few many)
parents(2 RP SPR)

node S._Economic__Resources_Change       SECONCHG    Determ_Discrete
values(3 decreased no_change increased)
parents(1 ACTN)

node S._Economic__Resources              SECON       Discrete
values(3 negligible inadequate adequate)
parents(2 ECON SECONCHG)

node S._Government__Change                SGVMTCHG    Discrete
values(3 decreased no_change increased)
parents(1 ACTN)

node S._Government                         SGVMT       Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 GVMT SGVMTCHG)

node S._Protect__Ecosystem_Goal            SPEG        Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(3 PEG SRP SPR)

node S._Expand__Budget_Goal                SEBG        Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(3 EBG SECON SGVMT)

node Overall_Goal__Attainment                  OGA         Determ_Contin
parents(2 SPEG SEBG)
values(1 utility)

context settings
real-world_phenomenon_type(EPA)
ecosystem_nodes(1 Rhino_Abundance)
inputs(5 (TIME 2016.0 2016.0 2016.0) (INACTR poachers)
   (INACTN sell_a_few_rhino_horns) (INS rhinoeco) (RAbund 200))

context files
output_files(anti-poach.ps anti-poach.html anti-poach.est)
parameter_files(old anti-poach-hyp.par anti-poach-ini.par
   anti-poach-cons.par)
EMAT_files(emat.dfn parsedacts.dat)
MPEMP_file(anti-poach-mpemp.par)

report evaluate
optimal_decision(1000)

report display
plot_graph(0)

report estimate
fit_logits(1 RP)
