South African Rhino Poachers
Decision-Making Diagram

comment (---------------------Situation Sub-ID--------------------------)

node Time                                    TIME        Determ_Root
values(1 time)

node Input_Action                            INACTN      Determ_Root
values(6
no_input_action
sponsor_poaching_raid
seize_rhino_horn
arrest_poaching_suspects
shoot_poaching_suspects
ecosystem_state)
 
node Input_Actor                             INACTR     Determ_Root
values(4 no_group1 middlemen anti-poach rhinoeco)

node Input_Subject                           INS        Determ_Root
values(3 no_group1 poachers rhinoeco)

node Order_Size                              ORDERSIZE  Determ_Root
   values(1 size)

node In_Bid_Price                            INBPRICE   Determ_Root
   values(1 price)

node Wage                                    WAGE       Determ_Root
   values(1 wage)

node Family_Memory                           FAMMEM     Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)

node Family                                  FAM        Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 FAMMEM INACTN)

node Pursue__Career_Goal                      PCG     Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 FAM INACTN)

node Imm._Inter-action_W._Police             IIWP      Discrete
values(2 will_be_arrested_for_poaching no_interaction)
parents(2 INACTR INACTN)

node Avoid_Prosecution__Goal                  APG       Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(1 IIWP)

comment (-------------------Scenario Sub-ID-------------------------)

node Action                                  ACTN       Determ_Decision
values(5
do_nothing
take_legal_employment
sell_few_rhino_horns
sell_several_rhino_horns
sell_many_rhino_horns
 
node Targets                                 TARGETS    Determ_Decision
values(2 one,anti-poach two,middlemen,rhinoeco)

node Chosen__Target                          CTARGET    Discrete
values(2 one,anti-poach two,middlemen,rhinoeco)
parents(1 ACTN)

node Number_Poached                         NMPOACHED   Determ_Linear
parents(3 INACTN ACTN ORDERSIZE)
parameters(1 b0)
values(1 nmpoached)

node S._Imm._Inter-action_W._Police          SIIWP      Discrete
values(2 will_be_arrested_for_poaching no_interaction)
parents(1 ACTN)

node S._Family                               SFAM       Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 FAM ACTN)

node S._Pursue__Career_Goal                   SPCG      Discrete
parents(3 SFAM PCG ACTN)
values(3 unattained middling attained)

node S._Avoid__Prosecution_Goal              SAPG       Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 APG SIIWP)

node Ask_Price                             APRICE       Determ_Linear
parameters(2 beta_0 beta_1)
parents(2 SAPG INBPRICE)
values(1 price)

node Overall_Goal__Attainment                OGA         Determ_Contin
parents(2 SPCG SAPG)
values(1 utility)

context settings
real-world_phenomenon_type(RR)
inputs(7 (TIME 2021.0 2021.0 2024.1) (INACTR no_group1)
   (INACTN no_input_action) (INS poachers) (ORDERSIZE 20.)
   (INBPRICE 5184.9) (WAGE 20.)

context files
EMAT_files(emat.dfn parsedematacts.dat)
groups_and_regions_files(rhinogroups.dat rhinoregions.dat)
output_files(poachers.ps poachers.html poachers.est)
parameter_files(old poachers-hyp.par poachers-ini.par poachers-cons.par)
MPEMP_file(poachers-mpemp.par)

report evaluate
optimal_decision(1000)

report display
plot_graph(0)
