South African Rhino Horn Trafficking Middlemen
Decision-Making Diagram 

comment (---------------------Situation Sub-ID--------------------------)

node Time                                    TIME          Determ_Root
values(1 time)

node Input__Action                            INACTN        Determ_Root
values(8
no_input_action
bid_for_rhino_horn
sell_a_few_rhino_horns
sell_several_rhino_horns
sell_many_rhino_horns
arrest_middleman
arrest_poaching_suspects
shoot_poaching_suspects)
 
node Input__Actor                             INACTR       Determ_Root
values(4 no_group1 anti-poach traders poachers)

node Input__Subject                           INS          Determ_Root
values(3 no_group1 middlemen poachers)

node In_Ask__Price                           INAPRICE      Determ_Root
   values(1 price)

node In_Bid__Price                           INBPRICE      Determ_Root
   values(1 price)

node TRDRS__Memory                             TRDRSMEM      Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)

node TRDRS                                    TRDRS         Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 TRDRSMEM INACTN)

node Supply_TRDRS__Goal                       TRDRSG        Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(1 TRDRS)

node Make_Profit__Goal                        MPG          Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(1 INACTN)

node Imm._Inter-action_W._Police       IIWP         Discrete
values(2 will_be_arrested_for_poaching no_interaction)
parents(2 INACTR INACTN)

node Avoid_Prosecution__Goal                 APG          Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(1 IIWP)

comment (-------------------Scenario Sub-ID-------------------------)

node Action                                  ACTN         Determ_Decision
values(3
no_action
sponsor_poaching_raid
sell_several_rhino_horn)
 
node Targets                                 TARGETS      Determ_Decision
values(2 one,traders one,poachers)

node Chosen__Target                           CTARGET      Discrete
values(2 one,traders one,poachers)
parents(1 ACTN)

node Target_Rel-ative_Power                 TRP           Discrete
values(3 less parity more)
parents(1 CTARGET)

node S._Imm._Inter-action_W._Police         SIIWP       Discrete
values(2 will_be_arrested_for_trafficking no_interaction)
parents(2 TRP ACTN)

node S._TRDRS                             STRDRS         Discrete
values(3 dissatisfied ambivalent satisfied)
parents(2 TRDRS ACTN)

node S._Supply__TRDRS_Goal               STRDRSG        Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 TRDRSG STRDRS)

node S._Make_Profit__Goal                 SMPG          Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 MPG ACTN)

node S._Avoid__Prosecution_Goal          SAPG          Discrete
values(3 unattained middling attained)
parents(2 APG SIIWP)

node Ask_Price                             APRICE        Determ_Linear
   parameters(2 beta_0 beta_1)
   values(1 price)
   parents(2 SAPG INAPRICE)

node Bid_Price                             BPRICE        Determ_Linear
   parameters(2 beta_0 beta_1)
   values(1 price)
   parents(2 SAPG INBPRICE)

node Overall_Goal__Attainment               OGA           Determ_Contin
parents(3 STRDRSG SMPG SAPG)
values(1 utility)

context settings
real-world_phenomenon_type(RR)
inputs(6 (TIME 0.0 0.0 0.0) (INACTR traders)
(INACTN bid_for_rhino_horn) (INS middlemen) (INBPRICE 50000.0)
(INAPRICE 2000.0))

context files
EMAT_files(emat.dfn parsedematacts.dat)
groups_and_regions_files(rhinogroups.dat rhinoregions.dat)
output_files(middlemen.ps middlemen.html middlemen.est)
parameter_files(old middlemen-hyp.par middlemen-ini.par middlemen-cons.par)
MPEMP_file(middlemen-mpemp.par)

report evaluate
optimal_decision(1000)

report display
plot_graph(0)
